RPI is a mistake to implement in 2016 unless 6A football is a reality

Colorado High School football was turned upside down on Saturday night 10/8/2016 at 8:30:05 PM as the official RPI data hit the wire. Since late August 303Gonzo.com has stated why it would be a mistake to implement RPI unless 6A football was a reality. The fact that the data used was based on Varsity results is clue number one it would be tragic. All those players have graduated and the team records would not reflect the future. A more accurate indicator would have been Junior Varsity or the current Juniors and Seniors making up most 2016 rosters. But that is what happens when not enough time is spent deciding the future and what is best for the neighborhood schools and communities.

As we look at the issues the top one is it is difficult for a team to have a highly rated schedule and not also have a high RPI ranking. At first look in 5A Eaglecrest, which has the state’s best record of 6-0-0 in the standings and according to the RPI and a 0.665 (OOWP) Opponents’ opponents winning percentage. Also a (WP) Winning percentage 1.000 that is ranked 10th despite a 6-0 record, which probably underrates them by 1-3 spots in the coaches poll. Now look at Valor at 3-3-0 and they could have even suffered a few more losses and still had a very nice RPI simply due to the boost they receive from playing good teams. The 0.800 (OWP) Opponents’ winning percentage is tops in 5A which the RPI says it has played the state’s toughest schedule according to the RPI on October 8, 2016.

Because strength of schedule is so important, a team can drop in the RPI by playing an opponent with a poor record, regardless of the outcome. Some coaches and teams, most notably Valor, Mullen and Pomona have gotten wise to this. The following Top 16 is the formula base on Winning percentage (WP): Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. If a win in an individual contest gives that contest a winning percentage of 1.00, a tie would give that individual contest a winning percentage of .500 for both teams.

10 Eaglecrest 0.6 6-0-0 1.00
1 Regis Jesuit 0.688 5-1-0 0.833
2 Grandview 0.657 5-1-0 0.83
4 Pomona 0.65 5-1-0 0.83
12 Fairview 0.568 5-1-0 0.83
18 Arvada West 0.519 5-1-0 0.83
27 Doherty 0.488 5-1-0 0.83
35 Aurora Central 0.431 5-1-0 0.83
5 Columbine 0.648 5-1-0 0.81
6 Highlands Ranch 0.629 4-2-0 0.67
8 Chaparral 0.61 4-2-0 0.67
9 Mullen 0.605 4-2-0 0.67
11 Legacy 0.575 4-2-0 0.67
15 Mountain Vista 0.55 4-2-0 0.67
16 Legend 0.546 4-2-0 0.67
19 Poudre 0.514 4-2-0 0.67

The following Top 16 is the formula base on Opponents’ winning percentage (OWP): Average the winning percentages of a team’s opponents. (Note: This is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents, instead by averaging each winning percentage of the opponents.) All games involving the team whose RPI is being calculated are ignored in this process.

RANK TEAM RPI RECORD WP OWP OOWP
3 Valor Christian 0.653 3-3-0 0.46 0.80 0.551
26 Boulder 0.493 0-6-0 0.00 0.77 0.438
21 Westminster 0.506 1-5-0 0.17 0.73 0.392
29 Rocky Mountain 0.473 0-6-0 0.00 0.73 0.433
7 Cherry Creek 0.621 3-3-0 0.50 0.73 0.533
34 Smoky Hill 0.435 0-5-0 0.00 0.72 0.3
24 Bear Creek 0.502 1-5-0 0.17 0.70 0.45
1 Regis Jesuit 0.688 5-1-0 0.833 0.67 0.586
14 ThunderRidge 0.564 3-3-0 0.50 0.64 0.466
17 Fountain-Fort Carson 0.526 2-4-0 0.33 0.64 0.493
5 Columbine 0.648 5-1-0 0.81 0.63 0.513
6 Highlands Ranch 0.629 4-2-0 0.67 0.63 0.583
2 Grandview 0.657 5-1-0 0.83 0.60 0.593
8 Chaparral 0.61 4-2-0 0.67 0.60 0.574
13 Ralston Valley 0.564 3-3-0 0.50 0.60 0.555
23 Cherokee Trail 0.502 2-4-0 0.33 0.60 0.476

The following Top 16 is the formula base on Opponents’ opponents winning percentage (OOWP): The same process as described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team’s opponents. Note that there is an exception for out-of-state teams. When calculating out-of-state opponents, their direct winning percentage (for example, .750) will count toward the formula, but each of their opponents will have a .500 winning percentage assigned. Were this not the case, schools would be chasing tens of thousands of opponents of out-of-state opponents over the course of a season, and there is no way to ensure the accuracy of that data. The .500 figure was selected because it is the average value of opponents’ opponents winning percentages across all sports in the data we’ve run. Now cross-classification games in Football will use a modifier to handle these cross-classification games. Other sports will not. The reason for the difference is football plays a 10-game regular season. The modifier for football will be a 15 percent difference. This number was arrived at when comparing the average RPI of football teams in different classifications over the past couple of years. On average, there was a 15 percent difference from a 5A team to a 4A team, from a 4A team to a 3A team, and so on.

RANK TEAM RPI RECORD WP OWP OOWP
10 Eaglecrest 0.6 6-0-0 1.00 0.37 0.665
16 Legend 0.546 4-2-0 0.67 0.43 0.656
27 Doherty 0.488 5-1-0 0.83 0.23 0.654
9 Mullen 0.605 4-2-0 0.67 0.56 0.638
2 Grandview 0.657 5-1-0 0.83 0.60 0.593
1 Regis Jesuit 0.688 5-1-0 0.833 0.67 0.586
6 Highlands Ranch 0.629 4-2-0 0.67 0.63 0.583
4 Pomona 0.65 5-1-0 0.83 0.59 0.583
12 Fairview 0.568 5-1-0 0.83 0.43 0.583
18 Arvada West 0.519 5-1-0 0.83 0.33 0.577
20 Fossil Ridge 0.511 4-2-0 0.67 0.40 0.576
8 Chaparral 0.61 4-2-0 0.67 0.60 0.574
35 Aurora Central 0.431 5-1-0 0.83 0.17 0.558
13 Ralston Valley 0.564 3-3-0 0.50 0.60 0.555
3 Valor Christian 0.653 3-3-0 0.46 0.80 0.551
22 Lakewood 0.503 4-2-0 0.67 0.40 0.544

The formula to be used in the RPI will be as follows:

RPI = (¼ × WP) + (½ × OWP) + (¼ × OOWP)
fullsizerenderAfter week 6 the first release of RPI has been controversial and there is a loophole that allows the committee to manipulate the final 16 teams. See the PDF from August 2015.

The only way to understand the RPI is if the document was shared on Google Docs for all to verify. Otherwise CHSAA will again have the match ups they want to seed for revenue purposes. The RPI might dictate #1 vs #16 but the gate money might favor a better match up. Please note all the playoff revenue goes directly to CHSAA. The revenue from ticket sales, TV, PPV (Pay Per View) and online content from advertisers. The schools and it’s volunteers are once again left out in the cold in a system not voted on by fans and athletes. As for this year all of us have to live with a system called RPI that college basketball for over 30 years has called a joke.

For now here is RPI #1 in week 6 (We will update each week) Last updated: 10/8/2016 8:30:05 PM

RANK TEAM RPI RECORD WP OWP OOWP
1 Regis Jesuit 0.688 5-1-0 0.833 0.667 0.586
2 Grandview 0.657 5-1-0 0.833 0.6 0.593
3 Valor Christian 0.653 3-3-0 0.459 0.8 0.551
4 Pomona 0.65 5-1-0 0.833 0.592 0.583
5 Columbine 0.648 5-1-0 0.812 0.633 0.513
6 Highlands Ranch 0.629 4-2-0 0.667 0.633 0.583
7 Cherry Creek 0.621 3-3-0 0.5 0.725 0.533
8 Chaparral 0.61 4-2-0 0.667 0.6 0.574
9 Mullen 0.605 4-2-0 0.667 0.559 0.638
10 Eaglecrest 0.6 6-0-0 1 0.367 0.665
11 Legacy 0.575 4-2-0 0.667 0.567 0.502
12 Fairview 0.568 5-1-0 0.833 0.429 0.583
13 Ralston Valley 0.564 3-3-0 0.5 0.6 0.555
14 ThunderRidge 0.564 3-3-0 0.5 0.644 0.466
15 Mountain Vista 0.55 4-2-0 0.667 0.5 0.535
16 Legend 0.546 4-2-0 0.667 0.43 0.656
17 Fountain-Fort Carson 0.526 2-4-0 0.333 0.638 0.493
18 Arvada West 0.519 5-1-0 0.833 0.333 0.577
19 Poudre 0.514 4-2-0 0.667 0.433 0.523
20 Fossil Ridge 0.511 4-2-0 0.667 0.4 0.576
21 Westminster 0.506 1-5-0 0.167 0.733 0.392
22 Lakewood 0.503 4-2-0 0.667 0.4 0.544
23 Cherokee Trail 0.502 2-4-0 0.333 0.6 0.476
24 Bear Creek 0.502 1-5-0 0.167 0.696 0.45
25 Arapahoe 0.501 3-3-0 0.5 0.5 0.504
26 Boulder 0.493 0-6-0 0 0.767 0.438
27 Doherty 0.488 5-1-0 0.833 0.233 0.654
28 Castle View 0.474 2-4-0 0.333 0.533 0.495
29 Rocky Mountain 0.473 0-6-0 0 0.729 0.433
30 Prairie View 0.47 2-4-0 0.333 0.533 0.479
31 Horizon 0.466 4-2-0 0.667 0.333 0.532
32 Rangeview 0.456 2-4-0 0.333 0.533 0.424
33 Douglas County 0.455 3-3-0 0.5 0.4 0.521
34 Smoky Hill 0.435 0-5-0 0 0.72 0.3
35 Aurora Central 0.431 5-1-0 0.833 0.167 0.558
36 Rock Canyon 0.418 2-4-0 0.333 0.4 0.541
37 Mountain Range 0.401 1-5-0 0.167 0.533 0.371
38 Northglenn 0.394 2-4-0 0.333 0.43 0.385
39 Denver East 0.366 3-3-0 0.5 0.254 0.456
40 Overland 0.316 0-6-0 0 0.4 0.464
41 Far Northeast Warriors 0.308 2-4-0 0.29 0.267 0.407
42 Hinkley 0.306 0-6-0 0 0.433 0.359

 

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