Stats overrated ?

Anyone who has played a game knows that keeping score is to track wins and losses. However, the competitive nature has us focussed on individuals rather than team success. Therefore in the modern era we rely on statistics to measure a player performance and highlights of many individuals on the team. However how credible are the self reported numbers at many high schools and little league games? Yes that is probably why most next level coaches could careless about individual statistics or awards but how well the individual performs on game videos. If statistics were audited by a third party then perhaps it would be a valid indisputable tool. Just think of the college board exams like the ACT and SAT. No one disputes these scores because they are administered and audited by the company that administers the exams. So why do we bother with Stats? It is because we always want to compare our success with others. Unfortunately at the youth and high school levels it is difficult. The difficulty is because not all athletes or teams are equal. The same could be said of college and pro sports. However at the college level these are generally the top 6% of high school athletes and the professionals are the top 1+%. These are when statistics are applicable and merit conversation. Regrettably we do not audit the lower levels because for the most part the information is considered valid as most coaches have someone on staff that inputs the data. Alas we forget about those booster clubs or volunteer parents that often take turns to track and delineate the information. So yes consistency is an issue as well as unscrupulous soles that want to pad statistics for their athlete. This has not only been an issue as of recent but has been a hot topic when reporters use online websites to write stories or select athletes for post season awards. When one or a few individuals have to cover statewide sports it becomes difficult because often they are paid by the event and not the time spent researching. Thus a self reporting site like MaxPreps that is a partner of CHSAA becomes a useful tool for many to compare or use in a byline. Often the outline is to describe the story of the event but many times media types often enhance storylines with flashy statistics. Again if you question everything are these accurate since the writer did not attend all the events or might not have even thought to track the multiple players on the field or involved in the event because it takes a lot of time. Once again there is a trust factor but would be more valuable if a third party auditor had control of the event. Currently to curb a few overzealous parents input a community writer is now having to attend events and compare notes with the statistician on hand. A safeguard that is helping to restrict fabrication for personal gain. Several years ago there was an issue when a parent would credit a player with a tackle because he bumped into the player or was on the pile. Eventually a few coaches explained the rule and the proper adjustments were made. However, retractions to stories and weekly awards were not retracted. Then there is another issue of competition. Not all teams are created equal or play like opponents.

There are multiple classifications in each sport in Colorado. Since we focus on football the fact is there are 7 classifications, (6man, 8man, 1A, 2A,3A, 4A, 5A). For the most part the competition has been measured correctly but the separation in 5A has been questioned as scores are lopsided and a handful of teams are stacked. So not all is equal and matchups are non existent for 81% of the participants. So this is a prime reason why statistics are overrated. When a top tier team has players exploding on the stat line it may be an indicator that the competition is not equal and the black and white numbers are exaggerated. Inflated numbers probably intensify why many coaches, fans, parents and players will state compare that individual to like opponents because that is more representative of comparing one athlete to another. The overall statistics do not tell the story.

The real tale of the tape is when we play tough teams or have playoff games. The longer we play the tougher the competition becomes so the statistics matter but the main goal is to win ball games. If someone has a stellar performance during post season that should merit more accolades than the soft regular season schedules. It is an honor to play in the post season but also a compliment when people notice your regular season was just a portion of the real story.

While many players have 9-10 games to tell their story, many will refer to statistics to compare athletes by position. Regrettably that is not a true barometer as many top tier athletes are pulled early in the contest to give way to another roster player. Therefore sacrificing individual awards for the benefit of the team. In some instances when teams clinch conference titles they rest their starting lineup so it is not comparing apples to apples. So the next time you see a stat line just remember Stats can be overrated unless audited or used properly to compare one to another. Not everything you see or read is what it appears to be and/or is meaningful.
As always we will see you on the fields as we know football! We are your source for content 24/7 and 365 about Colorado High School Football. YES it remains @303Gonzo of www.cofridaynightlights.com Please give us a follow on social media and stop by and say hello to talk football once a week at a location near you as we present a player of the week LIVE after a game via twitter and periscope. Look for #WingstopWednesday on twitter.

MileHigh Prep Report Class 2A Regular Season Awards

MileHigh Prep Report Class 2A Regular Season Awards

Quick Note: If your team has not posted stats it is very hard for me to give awards to players with no stats even if your team is doing good I cannot guess stats.  All Stats pulled from Maxpreps.com

One other Note: Being a lineman in high school it also hurt me inside not giving any offensive lineman awards.  Trust me the QB, RB, and WR wouldn’t be able to do any of this without you!

Player of the Year: Hunter Killough Sr. Bayfield High School; 104 tackles, 11 TFL, 1 Sack, 5 INTs, 1 Defensive TD, 505 yards rushing, 8 TDs, 161 yards receiving, and 4 TDs

Offensive Player of the Year: Bodie Hume Sr. Sterling High School; 2060 yards passing, 26 TDs, 9 INTs, 254 yards rushing, and 1 TD, Account for 74% of Sterling total Offense

Defensive Player of the Year: Hunter Killough Sr. Bayfield High School; 104 tackles, 11 TFL, 1 Sack, 5 INTs, 1 Defensive TD

QB of the Year: RJ Peshek Sr. Aspen High School; 2242 yards passing, 28 TDs, & 6 INTs

RB of the Year: Noah Williams Sr. Basalt High School; 1232 yards rushing 25 TDs

WR of the Year: Cody Bell Sr. D’Evelyn High School; 1002 yards receiving 12 TDs

Most Tackles: Hunter Clark Jr. Salida High School; 109 total tackles

Most Sacks: Ryan Phelps Sr. Bayfield High School; 15 Sacks

Most Interceptions: Garren Lahman Sr. Academy High School; 8 Interceptions

Surprise team of the Year: Aspen High School (Last Year 2-7)

Coach of the Year: Troy Hoffman Platte Valley High School

MileHigh Prep Report Class 2A All-State

Offense 1st Team

QB RJ Peshek Sr. Aspen High School

QB Bodie Hume Sr. Sterling High School

RB Noah Williams Sr. Basalt High School

RB Seven Lindsey Sr. Kent Denver High School

Offense 2nd Team

QB/RB Trevon Wehrman Jr. Platte Valley High School

RB Reece Ullery Jr. Elizabeth High School

WR Cody Bell Sr. D’Evelyn High School

QB Cade Bethany Sr. Classical Academy

Defense 1st Team

SS Hunter Killough Sr. Bayfield High School

DE Ryan Phelps Sr. Bayfield High School

OLB Hunter Clark Jr. Salida High School

LB Jon Nuschy Jr. La Junta High School

Defense 2nd Team

FS Zane Zuhlke Jr. Resurrection Christian High School

MLB Ryan Muniz Sr. Faith Christian High School

FS Trenton Kramer Sr. Eaton High School

CB Fernando Chavez Sr. Machebeuf High School

On the Line !?

Anyone that has experienced my passion to coach knows what “On the Line” means. Yes we are running so get on the goal line and get ready for 100 yard sprints. Unfortunately this week many coaches jobs are on the line. Multiple reports suggest long time coaches either will voluntarily or be forced to hang up the whistle. Many reasons are being sited but the most common reason is, “The game has passed many and new blood is needed to revive or resurrect once dominant programs. 

Some of the obvious coaching changes will be sub .500 teams but there are reports a winning club may just want a new direction because of all the shenanigans that revolves around winning at all costs. Mischievous maneuvering has been a hot topic with many programs but there is one program that flat out challenges loopholes annually without regards to the integrity of the game or sport. Now more schools are following their direction and coaching has been more about recruiting middle school talents than coaching attendance area kids.

The balance of power has been a topic for at least a couple of decades but in the past 6 years it is obvious how it has impacted the area neighborhood schools. High schools are being asked to donate more time and fields to youth organizations because of budget constraints and the trade off is access to little league organizations. The idea is the more time an individual or team spends on a high schools campus the more appealing the school becomes to parents and players. They become familiar with the drive, the surroundings and eventually “BUMP” into the high school (HS) coaching staff during the week or after the HS freshmen and junior varsity teams that play on Saturdays. This method has become more popular than the days when coaches adorned their logo gear at random parks where games were played and coaches complained about recruitment. Now the process is effortless if coaches play the game by attending events in their own back yard. For some this has been easy and well perceived. Meanwhile others are preparing for a new career as the game has passed them by and new winning strategies have not been implemented. Father time has caught up with many and the whistle needs to be bronzed.

We live in a new era where parents want the best for their children and often that means sacrificing to obtain better coaching than the neighborhood school offers. This is not the first time parents enrolled into a middle school near the high school they wanted to attend. It has just become more popular than ever before for sports oriented families and a guarantee for enrollment without moving into the district!

A coach will impact many adolescent lives over the course of four years. However more than ever before the impact during a freshman campaign may hinder the success of that coach or development of its future program. The successful programs include the varsity staff members contributing at the lower levels to teach them the fundamentals and how the process will evolve if both parties are dedicated to the team.

"Success breeds succes!" - @303Gonzo

Expectations are so high as the shift from a game of fun has become about opportunities at the next level. A majority of parents nationwide are trending towards joining a club sport or an unsanctioned association sport. The reasoning is that coaching is better and more focus on learning the game rather than a high school coach supplementing a teachers salary by coaching and going through the motions. Everyone probable remembers the PE teacher that rolled the balls out and said go for it while he or she read the newspaper or channel surfed on the television in the office. The urgency to coach is at a all time high and many are not willing to put in the time or make sacrifices. Therefore it is time to put it all on the line and put forth efforts or give up and hang up the whistle.
The dynamics of talent and teamwork are completely different in todays world of sports.
As always we will see you on the fields as we know football! We are your source for content 24/7 and 365 about Colorado High School Football. YES it remains @303Gonzo of www.cofridaynightlights.com Please give us a follow on social media and stop by and say hello to talk football once a week at a location near you as we present a player of the week LIVE after a game via twitter and periscope. Look for #WingstopWednesday on twitter.

Week 10 playoffs: November Reign ?

6man is underway with round one in the books and 8 teams moved on this weekend. Meanwhile 8man, 1A and 2A completed its seasons and brackets were released on Sunday using the infamous RPI. Below are the match ups. 3A, 4A and 5A will be released at the conclusion on next weekends games with a few having meaning.
In 3A Mead, Palmer Ridge, Canyon City, Evergreen and Pueblo East have clinched conference title with Pueblo East currently #19 in RPI and one game to play.Friday night Mead and Palmer Ridge are seeking victory number 10 and an undefeated season.
Pine Creek, Windsor, Fruita Monument, Chatfield and Loveland are in the drivers seat by clinching league titles in 4A and are top 16 in RPI. Loveland will go for its undefeated season win Saturday at 7pm.
5A will be decided in most likely a win or go home in Bear Creek at Regis as the fickle RPI will mostly be about strength of schedule. Bear Creek is #18 in RPI and desperately needs to win Friday night. Valor, Columbine, Pomona and Grandview solidified league titles. Grandview needs to thank Doherty for its senior night victory over Overland Saturday night. Eaglecrest will be gunning for a perfect season versus Arvada West and keep its current #3 ranking in RPI in a head to head match up for the conference title. Valor travels to FFC in what could be considered as a playoff game as FFC needs the win as they are #16 in RPI in a muddled field. Another playoff atmospheric game will be Thursday as Poudre travels to Highlands Ranch as the #17 Impalas desperately need a win to stay in contention to finish top 16. It is conceivable a 5-5 team gets into the 5A playoffs and a 6 or 7 game winner is denied once again.
Meanwhile Saturday will be a head to head contest for #24 Far North East versus Creek at 1pm which will conclude 5A RPI as the other teams have no influence on the final standings. It is conceivable by dinner 5A RPI will be completed only to await the football committees juggling of seedings on Sunday. Most likely a undeviating RPI like #1 vs #16 will NOT occur. However, many would like to see a Regis vs Mullen rematch from earlier this year and last years Valor vs Creek. For the sentimental Fairview vs Creek in the finale. If the committee was BOLD they would put the powerhouses on one side of the bracket to make it interesting rather than predictable. However, for that to happen underdogs like Bear Creek, Far North East and Arvada West would have to win their final season games. Boy howdy would that shake up 5A. Well heres to believing in the process called RPI.
 
2017 CHSAA State Football Playoffs CHSAA 8-Man Football Playoffs
2017 CHSAA State Football Playoffs CHSAA 1A Football Playoffs
2017 CHSAA State Football Playoffs CHSAA 2A Football Playoffs

One for all, all for 1?

Un pour tous, tous pour un; is a motto traditionally associated with The Three Musketeers. However, in high school sports is that truly a motto of each individual should act for the benefit of the group, and the group should act for the benefit of each individual?
Many coaches are under scrutiny for various reason these days and tunnel vision may be one of them. You are never going to change people unless they want to change. Some coaches will refer to a group of players as my team when in reality it is their team, the players that make up the content. The coach is responsible for teaching and graduating his or her athletes. So the bottom line is integrity and communicating with the kids to win ball games. However when does winning overcome righteousness when dealing with youngsters. The fear instilled in players is becoming an issue as coaches are intruding on a game of fun for personal gains. So attitudes have changed and the way they are coached.

There's hundreds of kids on contracts for grades, fighting, missing practices- etc. essentially 'behavior plans'-AZ reporter

Football has been about X’s and O’s and often the players are coached up. Nowadays it is more about eligibility, social media and essentially being a guidance councilor, in addition to being a post secondary recruiter.  So is signing a contract over the top or a wave of the future? A heated topic that is the focus in many high schools athletic departments as athletes are being forced to sign if they want to participate in team activities. However, the underlining fact is a child under the age of 18 is considered a minor and is unable to sign a contract, the minor child must have a parent or guardian consent to the contract in order for it to be legally binding. So the ad age “dictum meum pactum” or my word is my bond is taking on a new meaning when no exchange of documents and no written pledges being given.

"The odds are always against you no matter what your previous history is. You have to overcome the tendency to relax." -Tom Osborne

High school should be all about the memories and having FUN. Unfortunately the competitiveness and age of technology has the sports world changing directions. Both players and coaches are caught on video for the world to see and every game is scrutinized by fans, players and media. A disgruntled player might toss his helmet to the ground or punch a locker and it goes viral when in the old days people kept it private. Yes we are too impatient to let things work its way out.

In a time that we are challenging youngsters to be their best selves we need to remember they are just kids seeking to have fun. While sports can lead to better future opportunities we need to remember nearly 94% of them will NOT play at the next level. So why have individuals be restricted to an agreement if the entire team is not going to bond as one unit or agree to be all for one and one for all. Many of the public schools have academic guidelines for eligibility as well as a participation agreements and this holds true for most private institutions. In a nutshell leave the business forms and contracts for the next level because if a coaching staff can not motivate youngsters it may be time to hang up the whistle! Sports in high school is an activity for fun, not a business as many coaches are turning it into for personal gain. The dynamics of talent and teamwork are completely different in todays world of sports. Let the kids play and benefit the community. Put the FUN back into sports. It’s all about community. One unit acting as one or Un pour tous, tous pour un!

@CHSAA RPI killing recruiting efforts

A prevailing theme in the second season, weeks 6-10 or conference play, by way of the two year cycle called waterfall has created blowout match ups and dismay. The blahs are felt statewide as the daze of powerhouse teams face subpar competition after a first season, zero week through week 5 that were competitive and playoff atmospheric contests. The level of play also include some very nice rivalry games and allowed student bodies to have some fun while competing in the neighborhood. Unfortunately for some serious and talented student athletes the fallout of the second season and inequitable match ups has colleges staying away from many teams including annual the top tier programs.

"We are better off watching the championship games or a few late round playoff games in Colorado while making strides in other cities with better competitive teams on both sides of the ball." -D1 coach

For many teams that have some talented athletes they have played varsity football 2-3 years and are on the college circuits. However, for many teams that have a large enrollment, often players do not see varsity action until their senior season. Of course there are the coaches that their strategy is playing athletes their senior year since they have been contributing for 4 years and deserve a starting spot. These are the hidden gems or talents that will be overlooked and may not be seen during a traditional October or November college visit. Usually rising juniors and bubble seniors are scouted during the final months of the season as coaches are in the final stages of their evaluations for a December signing period. The association creating RPI and the fallout of mulish conference games forced the inequitable overall picture and should be remedied in 2018.

For years we have been hearing Colorado prides itself on being forward thinking when it comes to high school sports, but we are behind per many college coaches.

"We often hit the road in April to May to visit high schools and talk to coaches about their prospects. It is more appealing to see spring ball or contact drills as teams prepare their underclassmen for the August season. Usually we invite kids to our campus in June but now the process will be earlier in 2018." -D1 coach

December 20-22, 2017 will be the first early signing period followed by the popular first Wednesday in February, February 7, 2018, marketed by ESPN as signing day. The day in which athletes declare their (NLI) National Letter of Intent.

States like California, Arizona, Oklahoma, Texas, Georgia and Florida will continue to be heavily recruited because of the policies and levels of competition. In the past decade many Colorado teams have played out of state teams from neighboring Utah as well as California, Arizona, Georgia, Florida and Washington just to name a few. Some may want to visit Disney World but others might just want to play against better competition! So RPI, wild card points and/or dominating teams playing inferior teams has killed recruiting efforts in Colorado. Athletes and parents are having to go out of state to be noticed because the current format does not warrant a Friday night visitation.

"I firmly believe my son might have caught the attention of many D1 teams had we not had such an inferior schedule of opponents. Coaches know what teams are competitive and want to see battles not cream puff teams. Moving from 32 playoff teams to 16 helped but not by much. It was the out of state competitions and another sport in addition to football that got him notice, NOT solely football!" -D1 Father

It is conceivable the coaches, athletic directors and football committee that are under the direction of CHSSA did not realize the impact of RPI, but it is not the first time we have heard @CHSAA RPI is killing recruiting efforts. Some of the powerhouse teams are playing younger players earlier as blowouts are occurring in the first or second quarter. The starters are not getting quality reps and some of the stars are not racking up big numbers which is a barometer for some recruiting coaches. The lack of quality reps shows when coaching staffs request game film and the starters are done once the score eclipses 40 and second team players are inserted. Durability might enter some coaches minds but ultimately it is the competition. Just like the fans, college coaches do not want to see RPI #5 play #33 or #8 versus #40. While high school sports is supposed to be FUN the element of business and sports will overlap and recruiting is a massive topic that many want addressed in the new mudslide in 2018.

The remedy could start by allowing teams to have (OTAs) organized team activities as early as Mid April in addition to moving the start of Fall ball to the last Monday in July. At minimum have football coincide with Golf, the earliest starting date of all fall sports. In the meanwhile let us hope that the committee for 2018-19 makes the proper adjustments so we can make Colorado football great again.

Class 6-Man Regular Season Awards

6 Man Regular Season Awards

Quick Note: If your team has not posted stats it is very hard for me to give awards to players with no stats even if your team is doing good I cannot guess stats.  All Stats pulled from Maxpreps.com

Player of the Year: Jacob McCormick Sr. Stratton/Liberty High School

Offensive Player of the Year: Jacob McCormick Sr. Stratton/Liberty High School

Defensive Player of the Year: Caid Smith Sr. Genoa-Hugo High School

QB of the Year: Eric Morgan Sr. La Veta High School; 1381 yards passing, 27 TDs, & 2 INT’s

RB of the Year: Jacob McCormick Sr. Stratton/Liberty High School; 1353 yards rushing, 24 TD’s

WR of the Year: Logan Sircy Sr. Peetz High School, 584 yards receiving 83.4 Yds/Game, 9 TD’s

Most Tackles: Caid Smith Sr. Genoa-Hugo High School; 114 tackles 14.3 Tck/Game, 86 Solo

Most Sacks: Quade Pelton So. Cheyenne Wells High School; 9.5 Sacks

Most Interceptions: Vincent Bauer Jr. Briggsdale; 6 INT’s

Surprise team of the Year: Prairie High School (Record Last year 1-6)

Coach of the Year: Justin Kerns Prairie High School

First team All 6 Man 3 offensive & Defensive:

Offense

Jacob McCormick Stratton/Liberty High School

Trenton Holzworth Prairie High School

Bryce Miracle Otis High School

Defense

Caid Smith Genoa-Hugo High School,

Quade Pelton Cheyenne Wells High School

Owen Voll Cotopaxi High School

Milehigh Prep Report!

2 year FB cycle, more of the same?

Many of you are reading this article because you are hoping that the new two year cycle for football has been released. However the honest truth is we are nowhere near brilliance. The fact remains is we have to fix the trending wrong way of years past as much of the discussion is more of the same. Waterfall should be renamed mudslide this year as there have been some discussions but let’s just say there are too many cooks in the kitchen. The major issues are going to reside with the current classification of 5A and then trickle down to the current other six classifications. It’s blatantly obvious that 5A is lopsided with several powerful teams at the top and the rest struggling to win a handful of games. Only 5 different teams have been crowned state champion in the past decade, Valor Christian, Cherry Creek, Columbine, Mullen and Grandview and a whopping 9 in the past 23 years.
Current RPI data as of 8:12:14 AM Monday October 23, 2017 suggests the same power 5 teams will again dominate the 5A post season lineups.

Class 5A

Last updated: 10/23/2017 8:12:14 AM

Rank Team RPI Record WP OWP OOWP
1 Valor Christian 0.807 8-0-0 1.000 0.768 0.577
2 Columbine 0.696 7-1-0 0.875 0.625 0.535
3 Eaglecrest 0.680 8-0-0 1.000 0.411 0.603
4 Highlands Ranch 0.659 6-2-0 0.750 0.625 0.572
5 Grandview 0.638 6-2-0 0.750 0.607 0.516
6 Fairview 0.634 7-1-0 0.875 0.411 0.609
7 Regis Jesuit 0.632 7-1-0 0.875 0.446 0.545
8 Cherry Creek 0.630 6-2-0 0.750 0.589 0.510
9 Pomona 0.628 6-2-0 0.750 0.560 0.548
10 Lakewood 0.620 6-2-0 0.750 0.554 0.523
11 Chaparral 0.609 6-2-0 0.750 0.500 0.560
12 Arvada West 0.592 6-2-0 0.750 0.464 0.547
13 Ralston Valley 0.592 5-3-0 0.625 0.577 0.566
14 Fountain-Fort Carson 0.554 4-4-0 0.500 0.628 0.524
15 JK Mullen 0.545 3-5-0 0.375 0.732 0.519
16 Bear Creek 0.531 4-4-0 0.500 0.571 0.518
17 Cherokee Trail 0.529 4-4-0 0.500 0.607 0.457
18 Legend 0.529 4-4-0 0.500 0.556 0.530
19 Far Northeast Warriors 0.523 6-2-0 0.717 0.357 0.479
20 Poudre 0.522 5-3-0 0.625 0.413 0.532
21 ThunderRidge 0.513 3-5-0 0.375 0.699 0.439
22 Horizon 0.508 4-4-0 0.500 0.549 0.459
23 Doherty 0.495 5-3-0 0.625 0.321 0.561
24 Northglenn 0.493 5-3-0 0.625 0.352 0.505
25 Legacy 0.490 4-4-0 0.500 0.482 0.488
26 Overland 0.487 5-3-0 0.625 0.304 0.557
27 Rocky Mountain 0.487 3-5-0 0.375 0.607 0.473
28 Rock Canyon 0.468 4-4-0 0.500 0.375 0.561
29 Mountain Range 0.453 4-4-0 0.500 0.375 0.500
30 Mountain Vista 0.442 3-5-0 0.375 0.464 0.508
31 Boulder 0.441 2-6-0 0.250 0.607 0.478
32 Douglas County 0.398 2-6-0 0.250 0.521 0.435
33 Arapahoe 0.392 2-6-0 0.250 0.500 0.442
34 Denver East 0.392 2-6-0 0.250 0.495 0.449
35 Smoky Hill 0.382 1-7-0 0.125 0.607 0.431
36 Rangeview 0.382 1-7-0 0.125 0.607 0.431
37 Castle View 0.372 1-7-0 0.125 0.518 0.522
38 Westminster 0.343 1-7-0 0.125 0.464 0.487
39 Fossil Ridge 0.329 1-7-0 0.125 0.393 0.539
40 Prairie View 0.312 0-8-0 0.000 0.549 0.423
41 Hinkley 0.298 1-7-0 0.125 0.339 0.496
42 Aurora Central 0.285 1-7-0 0.125 0.339 0.446

So what can be done to improve title hopes for neighborhood teams that have not had a chance in nearly 25 years?
Glad you asked!

Modify the playing field!

No coach says they coach loosing football so why not tweak the RPI if it will be used in the new mudslide 2 year cycle. RPI = (0.700 × WP) + (0.200 × OWP) + (0.100 × OOWP) Obviously a team could control their own destiny by winning then again why use RPI if 42 teams are going to be set up to fail if new changes will be much of the same. There was a time when no one wanted Valor Christian (VC) to play in 5A and now many do not want them or Cherry Creek(CC) in their conference because of their ability to navigate the rules of CHSAA to benefit their programs.
It appears to be the clear sentiment in 2017 for the next 2 year cycle that no one wants CC or VC in its division and is evident when Highlands Ranch (HR), a neighborhood school about 1.3 miles across the street was outscored in 2016 43-7 and 48-7 in 2017 and was ranked as high as #3 in RPI. This is a team that made the playoffs in 2016 and lost to Columbine in round one 21-17. Currently HR appears to be a 2017 playoff team based on RPI. However, HR is like many teams that may have one more year left before an entire new squad replaces their current winning ways so year 2 of the mudslide might be brutal on their performance in 2019. Eaglecrest and Mullen might be the two teams in this next cycle that will be force to play younger athletes and suffer some heavy losses in a rebuilding process. Many may recall Arapahoe and Westminster who faired well 3 years ago and now are suffering miserably in this current cycle as are about 20 other teams in 5A.

NOTE: VC has outscored local opponents in 2016 with 458 and gave up 181 points. In 2017 with two games left VC has 227 points for and 63 points against. So basically an average local score will be 38-10 when playing VC and most likely a running clock in the 4th quarter. Only Pomona (14) and CC (21) have scored double digits on VC. Poudre and Fountain Fort Carson (FFC) are next on the schedule before the playoffs in November. The only bright spot is VC has to travel to FFC in their final game, in what most likely is a win or go home for FFC. However, the algorithm may be in favor of FFC just like 2016 and they limp into the playoffs based on strength of schedule (SOS). So now you understand the reticence to play or have VC in your division if the ultimate goal is 5-0 in conference matchups unless you were a team that manipulated your schedule 2 years ago like CC, Mullen, Pomona, RJ and VC. Conversely, Having the power 6, CC, Grandview, Mullen, Pomona, RJ and VC, teams on your schedule benefits RPI in non league.

So why not have these power 6, CC, Grandview, Mullen, Pomona, RJ and VC teams play one another in a home and away format with the top 2 playing one another in a state title. This would allow them to beat up on one another and allow the remaining 36 teams to finally have a chance at a state title.

As of today based on OWP here are the Top 6 teams:
Valor Christian
Mullen
ThunderRidge
Fountain-Fort Carson
Highlands Ranch
Columbine
All 6 teams are in 2 Conferences, Mt. Lincoln and Mt. Cameron
Based on RECORD on wins and losses:
8-0
Valor Christian
Eaglecrest
7-1
Columbine
Fairview
Regis Jesuit
6-2
Highlands Ranch
Chaparral
Pomona
Arvada West
Lakewood
Grandview
Cherry Creek
Far Northeast Warriors
As you can see the teams from the old Centennial and Jeffco leagues are the same teams dominating 5A play. Only the Far Northeast Warriors #19 are not in the Top 16 and they close out the season with Fossil Ridge and Cherry Creek so (SOS) will be interesting but 2 wins are the goal to guarantee FNE a 5-0 conference title.

A host of teams are 5-3.
Ralston Valley will face Eaglecrest this week and the winner most likely wins the Mt. Wilson league. As for the other teams it seems their fate was sealed after a loss in league play and NOT a favorable RPI based on SOS.

In a nut shell all the data points to going old school and base post season on wins and losses in addition to playing regional community teams. The student body, teachers and parents will not have to travel vast distances to root for their team colors. Also a sense of pride by beating the neighborhood team is more important to players and schools. Here is what most are saying:

  • “Yes its been a tough season but at least we beat Heritage, AHS student”
  • “We may have lost one game out of state but the season was successful when we beat Columbine! – Chatfield Student
  • “Not the season record we anticipated but beating Regis was awesome! I hope we can play them in the playoffs if we qualify.” – Mullen student
  • “We beat Creek and that is all that mattered but the loss to Mullen hurt the most and I hope we get them again in the playoffs. – RJ Dad
  • “Skyline has had the toughest schedule in 4A and we hope to avenge our only loss to Monarch as long as RPI lets us in.” Skyline Parent

Again it is not rocket science and the masses have spoken that local teams should play one another and math should not be part of the process. A simple win and losses should determine polls, rankings and playoff seedings not the failed system of 2016 called RPI.

Make it simple and regionalize games based on wins and losses!

PS
No one cares about enrollment numbers so do away with it and allow teams to choose to play in a division up or down or whatever will make football FUN again and put butts in seats. After all the goal is to sell tickets to competitive game so all the sports prosper with the revenue generated.
Until we hear about a new official 2 year cycle we will refer to all proposals as “The Mudslide” since the waterfall failed miserably!
As always we will see you on the fields as we know football! We are your source for content 24/7 and 365 about Colorado High School Football.

YES it remains @303Gonzo and www.cofridaynightlights.com

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3 & OUT

On the football field 3 and out refers to the neglect on the offense to move the ball 10 yards on 3 downs and is required to punt on the fourth down because they failed to secure a first down during the first three plays of the drive. Today in Colorado starts the weekend of 3 more games in regular season for most high school teams. Some are in a position to succeed while others are saying, wait until next year. Many coaches, parents and players are now seeing that there is no 4th down opportunity to move seniors forward. Unfortunately the losses were more prevalent than the wins and a loss in conference play resulted in an early off season. The new format of RPI and win or go home in conference play is a brutal reality that the season is not only about wins or losses but putting the football program in a position to succeed.

The final month of football is cumbersome as player eligibility becomes an issue if players did not perform in the classroom and have to sit out until grades rise. Conversely transfers become eligible that benefit winning teams from being eliminated in the final 5 games of regular season and propel them in the playoffs. While the issue of transfers, eligibility and RPI is complicated and complex, the fact remains waiting until next year does not help the underclassmen. Many teams at the lower levels are cancelling or forfeiting games which is the incorrect message to the youth that giving up is acceptable. While the sport of football is at a crossroads with media exposure about CTE it also is in a downward spiral as participation is decreasing because players are not being placed in a position to succeed and many club sports are dominating year around play. It is just a matter of time before football becomes a club sport. Not all is doom and gloom with three weeks to go if you believe in your program and don’t punt on underclassmen.

The last 3 and out should be with the future or your program, the underclassmen. Since other teams gave up on playing lower level contests and the current senior roster has not provided dividends why not play these rookie varsity players that are next seasons potential talents.

Coaching staffs could gain knowledge moving into the off season of what players look like in varsity play and could spend the next 9 months preparing for football 2018. The off season begins for many at the conclusion of November 3-5, 2017. A time when coaches need to evaluate their future roster or Hang up the whistle. Otherwise continue at the same pace of 3 and out and complain next year that your players did not take the weight room serious or the speed and agility drills or show up to the voluntary summer sessions or have game experience. The time is now to make 3 and out a positive. Use the last 3 games to make a positive on the future because you have lost the present. Either hang up the whistle or trade it in for a survival whistle. Make 3 and out meaningful for the future of the team and the program. Don’t punt! Go for it on 4th down by playing the future so something positive can come out of three meaningless games in 2017. Build on the future not the past. It is time to pass the torch and not give up.

@303Gonzo